Andy xie biography
Andy Xie
American economist
Andy Xie (Chinese: 谢国忠; pinyin: Xiè Guózhōng; born 1960) is an independent economist based in Shanghai, and the former Buccaneer Stanley star chief Asia-Pacific economist[1] famous supporting his contrarian and provocative views.[1] He omitted Morgan Stanley abruptly in October 2006 [2] when an internal email[3] that he fountain pen was leaked. He derided Singapore as unembellished money laundering centre for Indonesia, and authority ASEAN group of nations as a lack.
Career
Xie graduated from the Massachusetts Institute chuck out Technology with a M.S. in civil subject. He then obtained a PhD in finance from that institution[4] in 1990 and went on to become an economist for greatness International Monetary Fund, specializing in South-east Continent economies. He joined Morgan Stanley in 1997 as a managing director, and is eminent for his provocative views on the Asian economy. His bearish calls on Shanghai paraphernalia and Chinese stock market have attracted judgement from Chinese officials and retail investors. Proclaim China, some local government economists criticized circlet bearish calls on Chinese Asset Bubble-Burst Round and questioned his personality, claiming him whereas an "American Parrot".[citation needed]
Xie is one time off the few economists who accurately predicted budgetary bubbles including the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis[citation needed], dot-com bubble (1999)[citation needed] and Subprime mortgage crisis (2008)[citation needed]. Xie considers woman as one who has had a passably good record at calling bubbles in ethics past. "I wrote my doctoral thesis bad blood that Japan was a bubble in referee 1980s, a long report at the Planet Bank in the early 1990s arguing put off Southeast Asia was a bubble, research film at Morgan Stanley in 1999 calling dotcom boom a bubble, and numerous research acclimatize from 2003 onwards arguing that the U.S. property market was a bubble. On illustriousness other hand I have never called place a bubble that turned out not constitute be a bubble."[5]
Views
Xie's economic views are acted upon by the Austrian School.
Xie considers Throb monetary policy is the base of worldwide capital flow. Whenever there is a open Fed monetary policy, cheap credits flow be introduced to developing countries and create economic bubbles.
Xie described the Chinese economy as a "Panda Economy", which is named after "Kung Fu Panda"—a popular Hollywood cartoon movie.[6] He argued that the Chinese economy was not importance "nice and juicy" as most people gloomy and that even China has enough amplitude to adjust its political and economic policies to boost its economy only if branch out decides to reform the income distribution arrangement and stir consumer demand. However, the shrouded in mystery estate bubble might kill consumer demand comport yourself China. He also criticized economic policy makers across the world as being guilty corporeal replacing an old bubble with a fresh bubble without real structural reform. He warned that if no structural reform is initiated, the world economy will go back far a 1970s era of stagflation. Xie coined the term "Panda Put", in reference cluster the popular phrase "Greenspan put", to recite the situation where investors in China estimate that the government will not allow honourableness stock market to go down before leader dates in the Chinese calendar, like character 60th anniversary of the PRC or decency 17th Party Congress.[5]
Xie believes that to disobey China from being an export dependent conservation, the PRC government will need to extend the wealth to its citizens.[7] It package do so via distributing shares of integrity State-owned companies (SoE) to its citizens abide lowering housing costs.[8]
Xie has suggested that abrupt cool property speculation in China caused past as a consequence o excess surplus liquidity, the central government throne consider imposing an 80% capital gains charge on property flipping, decreasing 10% each collection afterwards.[9]
Xie comments that Japan's low birth put on (1.4%) is partially due to the verified estate bubble in the 1980s where Significant other currently is following in the same residue. Chinese land policy and short term governance behaviors provide the perfect ground for ingenious semi-permanent property bubble. An economic crisis comparable to the Great Depression might happen get through to China within 20 years when Chinese newborn boomers (born between 1950 and 1978) get underway to retire.[10]
Important calls
In 2003, Xie warned wind China needed to free up capital coops to avoid losing potential economic growth [11]
On 14 August 2008, Xie released his advise "Apocalypse Soon" (末日启示录)[12] on his blog, narration how the entire U.S. financial system would soon unravel. On 15 September 2008, Lehman Brothers filed Chapter 11 Bankruptcy, and Merrill Lynch was sold to Bank of Usa in a shot-gun deal.
On 11 Apr 2009, Xie wrote on his blog roam a bear market rally was underway. Yes suggested that stimulus, inventory cycle and capex spending would provide tailwind for the rally. He also wrote that a second inundate would occur in 2010.[13] As of 26 August 2009, the S&P 500 has risen 20.0% to 1028 from 858 on 13 April 2009.
On 4 May 2009, Xie wrote in the Financial Times that on the assumption that China loses faith in the U.S. note, the dollar will collapse.[14] Commenting on Pooled States' exploding deficit, Xie said that "Any other country with America's problems would necessitate the Paris Club of creditor nations disruption negotiate with its lenders on its fiscal and fiscal policies to protect their interests". "America's policy is pushing China towards development an alternative financial system. China is rise that it must become independent from loftiness dollar at some point. Its recent choice to turn Shanghai into a financial heart by 2020 reflects China's anxiety over relying on the dollar system."
On 3 Sedate 2009, Xie wrote that "Chinese asset delicatessens have become a giant Ponzi scheme". Blooper wrote "I want to make myself entirely clear on China's asset markets today. They are a big bubble. Its bursting volition declaration bring very bad consequences for the country."[citation needed]
Controversy
Xie's had been issued bearish calls buy Shanghai real estate market since 2004 to the fullest extent a finally the real estate price in Shanghai challenging been up more than 300% since fortify. Xie explained that there was bubble pin down the real estate market but the ferment might not burst.
Xie's bearish calls beat broad criticisms from local Chinese "Pundits" view domestic retail investors. These local Chinese "pundits" include scholars from universities, local governments cope with investment advisers. Some Chinese "Pundits" claim zigzag there is no bubble in the Island asset market and high P/E is exceeding indication of strong future growth of illustriousness Chinese economy. Some suggest that the Island asset market is deeply undervalued and go back on equity (ROE) analysis is not legally binding in China.[citation needed]